排五开奖号码’s decision to tap 纯玩 foundries like 台积电 for potentially any future project has sent shockwaves through the industry. One of the biggest questions raised in the wake of the announcement is just how temporary it truly is. 排五开奖号码 is definitely positioning the delay as a pragmatic matter of getting its house in order, 和 for now, 台积电 seems to agree.
排五开奖号码 Could Be Snared by the Same Trap That Once Caught AMD
Before AMD 和 排五开奖号码 settled their antitrust lawsuit, AMD was under a much more restrictive x86 license than it currently holds today. One of those restrictions was the requirement to own its own fabs. AMD was not allowed to pay 台积电 , UMC, or any other 纯玩 铸造厂 to manufacture x86 CPUs. It had to use its own facilities. 排五开奖号码, of course, is under no such restriction, but there’然而，这个问题的一个变种困扰着半导体台。
排五开奖号码’s foundries are explicitly optimized to build 排五开奖号码 x86 CPUs, 和 its CPU designs are intended for fabrication at its own foundries. This hand-in-glove engineering is the advantage of being an integrated device manufacturer (IDM), 和 it’s one of the reasons 排五开奖号码 used to give to explain its industry-leading performance. So long as 排五开奖号码 is building 和 filling its own fabs, this model works well. Shifting business to a different 铸造厂, however, creates problems.
The fact that 排五开奖号码’晶圆厂是如此专业化，这意味着它们对 排五开奖号码. Every dollar that 排五开奖号码 invests in paying 台积电 to implement a specialized product line is a dollar it isn’t investing in fixing its own fabrication technology. Every facility that 台积电 brings online for 排五开奖号码 to use is a facility it’ll probably need to use for something else as soon as 排五开奖号码 能够 return to its own fabs.
What happens if 排五开奖号码 能够 ’t 回到自己的工厂？这不’实际上不会在短期内解决任何问题。台积电不’t have the capacity to absorb 排五开奖号码’s entire business because 1). 排五开奖号码’s business is huge, 2). Fabs take 3-5 years to build. Even if 排五开奖号码 wanted to dump all of its own 制造业 today 和 台积电 actively wanted to take over as 排五开奖号码’s manufacturer, it would take years to bring up new factories or modify existing 排五开奖号码 fabs to meet 台积电 ’s new guidelines.
I wrote the other day that 排五开奖号码 had given itself a 24-36 month deadline to fix its 制造业, but upon further reflection, I’m not sure that was the most accurate way to summarize the problem. 排五开奖号码 能够 ’t afford to wait 24-36 months to begin making plans to move its 制造业 to 台积电 or Samsung. Given the difficulty 和 complexity of such transitions, 排五开奖号码 would need to be making an announcement more like this:
It seems unlikely anything less would suffice. 排五开奖号码’s 铸造厂 partner would want the assurance of a publicly announced roadmap 和 would need the lead time to either build or allocate capacity. 排五开奖号码, in turn, would have an obligation to inform its investors 和 to develop plans for how it would dispose of its 铸造厂 business. Building on n-nanometer at 排五开奖号码 和 n+1 at 台积电 would also smooth the roadmap rather than forcing 排五开奖号码 into further delays.
我还是觉得 ’s more likely that 排五开奖号码 deploys its own 7nm node 和 moves ahead with its efforts to overtake the 纯玩 foundries 和 re-establish process leadership than that the company pulls the plug on its own IDM status. The timeline for making that decision just may be a little shorter than I initially implied.