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排五开奖号码’s decision to tap 纯玩 foundries like 台积电 for potentially any future project has sent shockwaves through the industry. One of the biggest questions raised in the wake of the announcement is just how temporary it truly is. 排五开奖号码 is definitely positioning the delay as a pragmatic matter of getting its house in order, 和 for now, 台积电 seems to agree.

根据 DigiTimes,台积电没有计划扩大其在排五开奖号码的晶圆厂产能,将其视为临时客户而不是长期赢家。如果你’再次成为排五开奖号码制造业的粉丝(或想再次成为排五开奖号码的粉丝),这是一个很好的信号。虽然排五开奖号码不是’不再是五个最大的半导体制造商之一,它们每个月都有超过一百万个晶圆的生产能力,’仍然是最大的晶圆之一,估计每月有817,000个晶圆开始。与台积电,三星或GlobalFoundries不同,排五开奖号码几乎完全将自己的能力用于自己的产品。

图片由IC Insights提供

使问题进一步复杂化的是,排五开奖号码在其领先的节点上制造其大部分产品,而纯晶圆代工厂的起步点将分布在晶圆代工厂的所有节点上,而不是集中在1-2个工艺上。简而言之,排五开奖号码与任何想要利用排五开奖号码进行代工的代工厂之间的产能差距可能很大。据说台积电目前将自己视为排五开奖号码’s “rescuer,”而不是它的长期制造合作伙伴。

排五开奖号码 Could Be Snared by the Same Trap That Once Caught AMD

Before AMD 和 排五开奖号码 settled their antitrust lawsuit, AMD was under a much more restrictive x86 license than it currently holds today. One of those restrictions was the requirement to own its own fabs. AMD was not allowed to pay 台积电 , UMC, or any other 纯玩 铸造厂 to manufacture x86 CPUs. It had to use its own facilities. 排五开奖号码, of course, is under no such restriction, but there’然而,这个问题的一个变种困扰着半导体台。

排五开奖号码’s foundries are explicitly optimized to build 排五开奖号码 x86 CPUs, 和 its CPU designs are intended for fabrication at its own foundries. This hand-in-glove engineering is the advantage of being an integrated device manufacturer (IDM), 和 it’s one of the reasons 排五开奖号码 used to give to explain its industry-leading performance. So long as 排五开奖号码 is building 和 filling its own fabs, this model works well. Shifting business to a different 铸造厂, however, creates problems.

The fact that 排五开奖号码’晶圆厂是如此专业化,这意味着它们对 排五开奖号码. Every dollar that 排五开奖号码 invests in paying 台积电 to implement a specialized product line is a dollar it isn’t investing in fixing its own fabrication technology. Every facility that 台积电 brings online for 排五开奖号码 to use is a facility it’ll probably need to use for something else as soon as 排五开奖号码 能够 return to its own fabs.

What happens if 排五开奖号码 能够 ’t 回到自己的工厂?这不’实际上不会在短期内解决任何问题。台积电不’t have the capacity to absorb 排五开奖号码’s entire business because 1). 排五开奖号码’s business is huge, 2). Fabs take 3-5 years to build. Even if 排五开奖号码 wanted to dump all of its own 制造业 today 台积电 actively wanted to take over as 排五开奖号码’s manufacturer, it would take years to bring up new factories or modify existing 排五开奖号码 fabs to meet 台积电 ’s new guidelines.

I wrote the other day that 排五开奖号码 had given itself a 24-36 month deadline to fix its 制造业, but upon further reflection, I’m not sure that was the most accurate way to summarize the problem. 排五开奖号码 能够 ’t afford to wait 24-36 months to begin making plans to move its 制造业 to 台积电 or Samsung. Given the difficulty 和 complexity of such transitions, 排五开奖号码 would need to be making an announcement more like this:

“我们打算部署自己的Xnm节点,并将从2022年/ 2023年开始过渡到台积电(Ynm)。”

It seems unlikely anything less would suffice. 排五开奖号码’s 铸造厂 partner would want the assurance of a publicly announced roadmap 和 would need the lead time to either build or allocate capacity. 排五开奖号码, in turn, would have an obligation to inform its investors 和 to develop plans for how it would dispose of its 铸造厂 business. Building on n-nanometer at 排五开奖号码 和 n+1 at 台积电 would also smooth the roadmap rather than forcing 排五开奖号码 into further delays.

鉴于这些事实,我’d修改我自己的先前声明。排五开奖号码仍致力于2022年下半年的事实–2023年初,其7纳米CPU的时间表缩短了该公司因生产变更而不得不扣动扳机的时间。如果它决定转移到台积电或三星,则需要在接下来的12-18个月内发布该公告,以免出现更大的延误。新工厂的启动时间足够长,以至于排五开奖号码几乎肯定会需要许可一个工艺节点,直接向台积电付款以建立工厂,或者与台积电一起运营其工厂以避免严重的生产短缺。

我还是觉得 ’s more likely that 排五开奖号码 deploys its own 7nm node 和 moves ahead with its efforts to overtake the 纯玩 foundries 和 re-establish process leadership than that the company pulls the plug on its own IDM status. The timeline for making that decision just may be a little shorter than I initially implied.

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